I have a rule for picking rematches when it comes to football: the second time two teams play, I normally pick the team that didn’t win the first time to win the second time.
However, with the rematches this week in the NFL playoffs, I find myself breaking that rule, especially with Chiefs-Texans. Despite Houston’s defense looking like the second coming of the 2000 Ravens in their wildcard victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, I can’t pick against QB Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Here are three reasons why the Chiefs will beat the Texans and move on to the AFC Championship.
The Chiefs are getting healthy as Houston wears down
The injury report for the Texans this week is…not great.
The names on there for Houston that I’m really worried about are RB Joe Mixon and LB Azeez Al-Shaiir. Al-Shaiir missed the first game against the Chiefs where Kansas City consistently attacked the aggressive nature of Houston’s linebackers. Not having their QB in the middle of the defense is going to bring everyone else up on the depth chart, putting the advantage in Kansas City’s favor. Mixon is massive if he can’t play. With all of the offensive ineptitude that Houston has gone through this year, Mixon has given them some physicality in the backfield and kept that offense on schedule in their Wild Card win. Playing without a credible threat in the backfield and an offensive line that can get holes poked in them is a recipe for disaster.
On the flip side, Kansas City is getting healthy. DT Chris Jones is playing, as is WR Hollywood Brown. On top of that, adding CB Jaylen Watson back to the secondary room allows them to be more versatile and DC Steve Spagnuolo can mix up his matchups on WR Nico Collins. Kansas City is loading up for another deep playoff run, and by getting healthy at the right time, they cause major problems for Houston.
Kansas City’s hyper-West Coast offense has gotten the best of Demeco Ryans
In previous matchups with Demeco Ryans’ defenses, the Chiefs have gotten the best of them by using motion and misdirection to just pepper the uber-aggressive defense with jabs until Mahomes can hit a haymaker. The Chiefs’ hyper-West Coast offense is built to use motion to create leverage and disruption via stacks and bunches, which will give them as much space needed to stretch this defense horizontally. In their last matchup, QB Patrick Mahomes had a blistering 0.3 EPA per play and 53.1% Success Rate, despite only having a 5.7 aDOT. He was picking the Texans’ defense apart underneath, and it doesn’t bode well for Houston.
Big Game Spags
Let’s get back to the Spags portion of this. The Chiefs’ defense has always turned it up come playoff time, and their defensive coordinator follows suit. Spagnuolo always seems to save his best work for the playoffs, consistently dragging the top offenses into the muck. I’m worried for the Texans about this style of matchup where they get dragged into a ball control game, because they might not score enough points. In addition to the big game coordinator, the Chiefs have the best big game defender in the game right now in DT Chris Jones. Since 2022, Jones has 22 combined pressures, 2.5 sacks and a bevy of lanes opened up for other pass rushers on the team. When Jones is healthy and the calendar turns to January, he turns up his play. Against a Texans interior that has been hit or miss, that could be what helps Kansas City get the win.
