With 11 games in the books on the NFL regular season it’s fair to start looking ahead to the playoffs and beyond. It goes without saying that anything could happen in the postseason, but looking at the trend of the league we feel fairly comfortable separating the contenders from pretenders.
At this point nobody in the NFL is eliminated from the playoffs, at least not technically. Obviously the Jaguars or Cowboys aren’t winning the Super Bowl, but until their season is over they still need to be ranked. Here’s how we ranked the teams based on their chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in 2025.
Super Bowl Rankings
| AFC | James | Mark | JP | Avg | NFC | James | Mark | JP | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC | James | Mark | JP | Avg | NFC | James | Mark | JP | Avg |
| Bills | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Lions | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Chiefs | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Eagles | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4.33 |
| Ravens | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | Commanders | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7.33 |
| Steelers | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5.66 | Vikings | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Texans | 9 | 7 | 11 | 9 | Cardinals | 12 | 12 | 8 | 10.66 |
| Chargers | 10 | 9 | 12 | 10.33 | Packers | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10.66 |
| Broncos | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | Falcons | 14 | 14 | 16 | 14.66 |
| Dolphins | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | Rams | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15.33 |
| Colts | 19 | 19 | 20 | 19.33 | Seahawks | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Bengals | 21 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 49ers | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Jets | 22 | 24 | 26 | 24 | Buccaneers | 20 | 21 | 21 | 20.66 |
| Patriots | 26 | 25 | 24 | 25 | Saints | 23 | 22 | 22 | 22.33 |
| Titans | 28 | 27 | 27 | 27.33 | Bears | 24 | 23 | 23 | 23.33 |
| Browns | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27.66 | Panthers | 25 | 26 | 25 | 25.33 |
| Raiders | 29 | 29 | 31 | 29.66 | Cowboys | 30 | 32 | 29 | 30.33 |
| Jaguars | 32 | 30 | 32 | 31.33 | Giants | 31 | 31 | 30 | 30.66 |
No. 1: Detroit Lions
The Lions just keep destroying opponents. You can try and pour cold water on it by saying they haven’t played good teams, but they do what the elite teams are supposed to do to bad teams, which is blast them to kingdom come. The Lions have had more games where they’ve scored over 40 points than they have games where they score less than 20. That is ruthless, incredible football.
How they do it is actually pretty simple, but they have so much speed everywhere on the field that it forces teams to give them space so they can grind you with their run game. Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs provide the pop for this offense, but make no mistake: when everything is flowing for Detroit, they get contributions from everyone. The defense is also playing at an incredibly high level, getting sticky coverage on the back end from safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch.
This very well could be the year that the Detroit freakin’ Lions break the glass ceiling. I’m here for it, honestly.
No. 2: Buffalo Bills
What we saw on Sunday between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs may be the best case for ranking the Bills this high on this list.
Facing 4th-and-2 late in the game, and needing one more big play to ice a win against the Chiefs, the Bills turned to Josh Allen. As he often does, Buffalo’s Superman put the Bills on his back and barreled through the Kansas City defense and into the end zone, with a touchdown to put the game virtually out of reach.
But beyond Allen, the fact is the Bills have a very strong case for this spot. They have one of the most efficient offenses in the league, and their defense is certainly good enough for this team to be a contender. When you look at both Offensive and Defensive EPA as charted by RBSDM, you’ll see the Bills right behind the Lions:
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But it starts with #17.
No. 3: Kansas City Chiefs
The door is definitely still open for a chance at a three-peat, but you’re lying to yourself if you think this is the best iteration of the Chiefs we’ve seen in recent years. A lack of weapons has finally caught up to Kansas City, and that’s led to the least-effective version we’ve seen of Patrick Mahomes in years.
Make no mistake: Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the NFL, but the step back on offense has led to him trying to force far too many plays this season and he’s on pace for a career-high in interceptions as a result. Those kind of errors get magnified in the playoffs where one turnover against a top opponent can spell the end to an entire playoff run.
Pair a less-effective Mahomes, with a defense that’s taken a noticeable step back from a year ago and it’s difficult to be as bullish about the Chiefs in 2024 than in years past. It’s still hilarious that as much as we doubt them they’re still No. 3, and that’s a testament to just how good this team is.
No. 4: Philadelphia Eagles
When it comes to the Philadelphia Eagles this is a really funny team to work out. It wasn’t long ago that the Eagles were 2-2, entering a bye week with questions of whether Nick Sirianni would make it through the season. Now they’ve won six in a row and are on an absolute tear.
Saquon Barkley has been the missing piece to this offense. With four 100+ yard rushing games in his last five the Eagles now have a fully realized offense that can thrive in both phases. Meanwhile it’s led to Jalen Hurts being a much more confident passer in the pocket, and that’s shined through as well.
The Eagles are a very dangerous team with a chance to beat anyone in the NFL, though they’re just outside the Top 3 when it comes to how confident we are in them.
